Navigating Climate Risk
In June, the Research Council of Norway announced the list of new Centres for Research-based Innovation. Climate Futures is one of them and will start in November. Our centre involves about 30 partners, and our goal is to enhance climate prediction skill and the uptake of climate risk management in the private and public sectors.
The Climate Futures alliance was built on the platform provided by the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and will be coordinated by NORCE.
I dag fikk vi nyheten om at Climate Futures sin SFI-søknad ble valgt ut som en av 22 nye SFI-er. Forventet oppstart er 1. oktober. Bergens Tidende laget denne saken.
The research project Seasonal Forecasting Engine has issued a new forecast (in Norwegian). Short summary: the mild weather in Northern Europe will continue.
OPPDATERING: Seminaret er utsatt grunnet koronakrisen.
Vil noen av de verste konsekvensene av naturkatastrofer kunne unngås? Kan viktige næringer tilpasse seg ekstremvær lang tid i forveien? Vil kraftprisene svinge mindre? Hva med forsikringene våre? Blir vi rett og slett bedre forberedt og hvilke konsekvenser har det?
Mandag 30. mars 2020 arrangerer NORCE, Bjerknessenteret og NHH et lunsjseminar om klimarisiko. Det blir kun anledning til å delta med gyldig billett. Gratis påmelding via Eventbrite.
Varslingsmodellene ga tydelige signaler om tørken sommeren 2018. Om dette var et offisielt varsel som ble gitt og tatt hensyn til allerede i juni eller tidligere, hvordan kunne det vært utnyttet? Sammen med eksperter på feltet forsøker vi å gi noen svar på hvordan lange varsler kan gjøre verden smartere og tryggere.
Et viktig punkt er hvordan klimavarsler tas inn i risikovurdering. Dette gjøres i liten grad i dag, ifølge Regjeringens klimarisikoutvalg. Derfor har NORCE og Bjerknessenteret opprettet initiativet Climate Futures, sammen med NHH og fremoverlente aktører i næringslivet.
Dette har blant annet ført til en søknad om midler til et nytt Senter for forskningsdrevet innovasjon (SFI). Til dette seminaret kommer representanter for sektorer der varsling av klimarisiko forventes å ha stor betydning. Seminaret vil gi innblikk i hvordan disse blir påvirket av værforhold, og hva enkelte aktører tenker rundt mulighetene dersom de visste været «i stort» for de kommende månedene.
Her er det åpenbare samfunnsgevinster, men denne typen varsler vil også kunne legge føringer på hvordan næringer innretter seg og drives. Trusler kan reduseres, og vi kan øke konkurranseevnen basert på fremtidskunnskap om vær, vann og vind.
Seminaret arrangeres som en del av prosjektet Seasonal Forecasting Engine, som er finansiert av Norges Forskningsråd.
Program
10:00 – Velkommen ved Øyvind Paasche, Bjerknessenteret og NORCE
10:05 – Hva menes med klimarisiko? Linda Nøstbakken, Prorektor NHH, medlem av klimarisikoutvalget
10:20 – Lange værvarsler: Erik Kolstad, NORCE og Bjerknessenteret
10:35 – Norges forhold til klimarisiko: Klima- og miljøminister Sveinung Rotevatn
10:50 – Klimarisiko innen energi-kraftproduksjon: Jannicke Hilland, adm.dir. BKK
11:00 – Klimarisiko innen bank/finans: Ragnhild Janbu Fresvik, konserndirektør Sparebanken Vest
11:10 – Havvind: en demper av klimarisiko? Beate Myking, direktør for fornybare løsninger, Equinor
11:20 – Klimarisiko innen forsikring: Espen Opedal, adm.dir. Tryg Norge
11:30 – Klimarisiko innen shipping: Erlend M. Knudsen, Global Sustainability Manager, StormGeo
11:40 – Åpen diskusjon med panel bestående av innledere
12.00 – Påskevarsel, lunsj og sosialt
UPDATE: The seminar is postponed due to the Corona crisis.
The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research at the University of Bergen and Christian Michelsen Institute (CMI) are organizing a one-day, invitation-only workshop entitled How climate change is shaping Africa. The workshop will take place at Litteraturhuset in Bergen from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on 21 April 2020, ending with a workshop dinner. Norway’s minister of international development, Dag Inge Ulstein, has agreed to open the workshop, and Henrik Urdal – the director of PRIO – will give one of the keynote presentations.
The goal of the workshop is to identify new opportunities for cross-disciplinary research on climate change and African development in Norway. Structurally, the workshop will consist of two parts: 1) Invited keynote presentations covering policy, scientific challenges, and knowledge gaps and needs; and 2) Group work to discuss concrete opportunities for research proposals (identify relevant calls, construct proposal outlines). We also aim to write a policy brief or perspective article based on the discussions.
If you would like to participate (or if you know someone who might), please get in contact with Erik Kolstad at the Bjerknes Centre and/or Aslak Orre at CMI as soon as possible.
Programme (subject to change):
On 25 September 2019, we submitted a proposal for a new Centre for Research-Based Innovation. With six research partners and nearly 30 user partners, the centre will launch in late 2020 if it receives a grant from the Research Council of Norway.
Our aim is to better tackle one of the most urgent challenges of our time, namely that the changing nature of weather and climate poses a severe threat to the prosperity and well-being of our economy and society as a whole, but climate risk is inadequately managed due to knowledge gaps and deficiencies in the decision-making processes of businesses and public authorities.
We will address this critical challenge by working with a large group of partners to co-develop better methods and practices for climate risk management.The main objective of the centre will be to co-produce new and innovative solutions for predicting and managing climate risks from 10 days to 10 years into the future with a cluster of partners in climate- and weather-sensitive sectors.
The breadth and commitment of our consortium testify to an indisputable need for a large and cross-sectoral centre for addressing climate risks. It unites world-leading weather and climate scientists, economists and statisticians with industrial sectors – food production, energy, shipping, insurance, management consulting and risk management – and public authorities in all parts of Norway. Together, we will expand established collaborations and ongoing initiatives to create an active industry-oriented research cluster.
One of our projects, Seasonal Forecasting Engine, recently published their June forecast based on five numerical weather prediction models. The June forecast was remarkable in that it predicted almost no temperature anomalies in Northern Europe. When we sum up in July, we will probably find that some regions experienced either warm or cold anomalies, but there was no consistent signal across the models this time.
In Climate Futures, we will make use of advanced statistics and machine learning to create algorithms that improve the skill of forecasts going from 10 days to 10 years into the future. The key will be to learn how different climate variables interact and then to use that knowledge to make better use of the physical models. Erik Kolstad, the PI of the SFE project, was the lead author of a 2017 article on the different roles that snow cover, soil moisture and soil temperature play in dictating the persistence of temperature from month to month.
A key figure in that paper showed which of these variable were the most important mediator of persistence in winter and summer:
At midlatitudes, snow depth plays an important role. This means that when there is a lot of snow on the ground, the temperature will probably stay anomalously cold from January to February. Or if there is thin snow or no snow at all, the temperature will be anomalously warm in both months. The specific role of snow was examined in a follow-up study. In summer, soil variables dominate completely.
Our long-term goal is to assign a higher weight to the models that represent these physical mechanisms well while assigning a lower weight to less realistic models. To be able to plough through the huge data amounts available from models, observations and satellite imagery, we need to let computers do the heavy lifting. Another important reason not to do this manually is that humans are prone to making mistakes, often in the form of being too subjective. Machines, for better or worse, do not have this bias, which we believe makes them ideally suited for this work.
Stay tuned for our July forecast and other developments!
Yesterday, we submitted an outline for a proposal for a new Centre for Research-based Innovation. With 16 user partners and 6 research partners, this was the first step towards a full proposal to be
Climate Futures will create usable and reliable climate forecasts that do not exist today. Short-range weather forecasts are already invaluable tools for planning ahead, but there is a clear need for climate information beyond the next 10 days and up to decades into the future – the
subseasonal -to-decadal (‘S2D’ hereafter) time horizon. For instance, hydropower companies make crucial decisions based on assumptions about future rainfall, snow accumulation and heating demand. Insurance companies would save large sums if they could prepare for cold spells, floods, tropical cyclones and droughts. Farmers need to know when the growing season starts, how much it will rain and how warm or cold it will be, and when to harvest.Climate risks are manifold and escalating, but there is a critical shortage of tools for managing them. We will capitalize on recent scientific advances in climate prediction and artificial intelligence (AI) and develop new products to radically expand the use of S2D forecasts in Norway. The products must be easy to use, relevant, dependable and scalable. This requires cooperation across disciplines and sectors and innovation on a grand scale, which our consortium is uniquely positioned to accomplish. By bringing together some of the largest energy and insurance companies in Norway, leading agricultural actors, a global provider of weather intelligence, public authorities, world-leading climate scientists and outstanding expertise in weather forecasting, economics, statistics, AI and co-production, we will make climate forecasts available for everyone, to benefit companies, individuals, organizations and policy-makers.