Forecast for November and December 2020

In the Seasonal Forecasting Engine research project, we combine historical data (ERA5) and trends with seasonal forecasts from multiple dynamical models into probabilistic forecasts. The dynamical model data is provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). The method that we use to combine these data sources will be published soon.

This is our temperature forecast for November, shown as deviation from the long-term climatology in standard deviation units:

Median temperature forecast for November 2020, based on ERA5 and forecasts from the seasonal forecast models from CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France and NCEP.

The ongoing La Niña is clearly visible as below-normal temperatures in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific. In most of Europe, above-average temperatures are expected.

When it comes to precipitation, the northern part of Europe is forecast to be slightly wetter-than-normal, but in other regions strongly drier-than-normal conditions are predicted:

Median precipitation forecast for November 2020, based on ERA5 and forecasts from the seasonal forecast models from CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France and NCEP.

Below, the December temperature forecast is shown:

Median temperature forecast for December 2020, based on ERA5 and forecasts from the seasonal forecast models from CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France and NCEP.

And finally, the combined December precipitation forecast:

Median precipitation forecast for December 2020, based on ERA5 and forecasts from the seasonal forecast models from CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France and NCEP.

May, June, July seasonal forecast for northern Europe

The research project Seasonal Forecasting Engine issued a new forecast today (in Norwegian). The figure below shows the predicted temperature anomaly, i.e. the deviation from the average during the last 20 years.

The predicted anomalies are quite small, meaning that the forecast models indicate that the period will be neither very warm nor very cold compared to normal.

Disclaimer: Our seasonal forecasts are experimental and subject to ongoing research. We accept no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from use of this forecast.