This week, Erik Kolstad presented the seasonal forecast for March, April and May 2022 for the partners in Climate Futures. The forecast indicates a mild start to spring this year.
In November 2021, Climate Futures published a forecast that said we could probably expect a mild winter. The forecast for spring 2022 is now out, and also this season is expected to be milder than usual.
I March, there is a 70-80% chance of warmer than usual conditions. Originally, there is a 50% for both warmer and colder than normal, but because of the global warming trend the past few years, the average is 65%. Thus, March has an unusual clear signal for warmer than normal conditions. Read more about how we make forecasts here.
When it comes to precipitation, there is a 60-80% chance of wetter than normal, with the exception of the eastern part of Norway, where the probability is about 50%. This correlates well with the temperature forecast.
For the first time we included wind in the forecast, and we have looked at Northern Europe as a whole. The forecast shows a 60-80% chance of more wind than normal, which can potentially be good news for the electricity prices.
April is also forecasted to be both warmer and wetter than normal, but the signal is not as strong, which is natural because the longer into the future you forecast, the weaker the signal is.
Climate Futures is a centre for research driven innovation (SFI) consisting of research partners and user partners. After Kolstad presented the forecast in plenary, we divided the participants into smaller groups to discuss the forecast. This resulted in a very good discussion and it is something we want to continue doing at future forums. It also gave the partners the opportunity to give their input, which can help us improve the forecast and how it is presented, so that it becomes as useful as possible for the users.
For more details, see the whole forecast on klimavarsling.no (in Norwegian)