Journal papers

• • • Li, X., Berentsen, G. D., Otneim, H., Juranek, S. (2026) Stakeholder Engagement Through Environmental Shareholder Proposals and Green Innovation. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 1–25, doi: 10.1002/csr.70638
    • Kolstad, E. (2026) Deficient ocean-atmosphere feedbacks constrain seasonal NAO prediction. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 7, 507-522, doi: 10.5194/wcd-7-507-2026
    • Williams-Kerslake, M., Langehaug, H. R., Skogseth, R., Nilsen, F., Samuelsen, A., Gonzalez, S., Keenlyside, N., (2026) Characterising Marine Heatwaves in the Svalbard Archipelago and Surrounding Seas. Ocean Science, 22, 587-607, doi: 10.5194/os-22-587-2026
    • Cunen, C., Roksvåg, T., Heinrich-Mertsching, C., Lenkoski, A. (2026) Combining predictive distributions for time-to-event outcomes in meteorology. International Journal of Forecasting , 42, 673-690, doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.10.004
    • Fan, H., Jia, H., Wu, Z. (2026) Natural disaster risks in seaports for global petroleum trades. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 210, 104784, doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2026.104784
    • Hempel, M., Kolstad, E. (2026) What if farmers had seen it coming? The retrospective potential of extended-range forecasts in managing the 2018 drought in Norwegian agriculture. Climate Risk Management, 51, 100792, doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100792
    • van Bijsterveldt, L.Q., Kolstad, E.W., Seierstad, I.A., Nipen, T.N., Sivle, A.D., Kristiansen, J. (2026) Lessons learned from co-developing the new operational subseasonal forecast for laypeople on Yr. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), early online release, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0141.1
    • Meisch S., Bremer S., Hempel M., Dunn-Sigouin E. (2026) Adapting the social practice of beekeeping to a changing climate. Ambio, early online release, doi: 10.1007/s13280-026-02354-6.
    • Moreno, R. S., Svendsen, L., Counillon, F. S., Bilge, T. A., Nair, A., Bethke, I. (2026) Prediction skill of ENSO and ENSO teleconnection in NorCPM: A comparative analysis with C3S. Weather and forecasting, early online release, doi: 10.1175/waf-d-25-0028.1
    • Skaret, G., Pena, H., Tenningen, M., Totland, A., Slotte, A., Hølleland, S. N., Johnsen, E., Vatnehol, S., Huse, G. (2026) Evaluation of pre-spawning monitoring of Barents Sea capelin for assessmnet and advice. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 36, 16, doi: 10.1007/s11160-025-10018-z
    • Narum, B., Berentsen, G. D. (2026) Joint Forecasting of Salmon Lice and Treatment Interventions in Aquaculture Operations. Aquaculture, 610, 742849 doi: 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2025.742849
    • Vilela, I., De Luca, P., Koseki, S., Silva, T., Veleda, D., Keenlyside, N. (2025) AMOC weakening modulates global warming impacts on precipitation over Brazil. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 369, doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-01248-w
    • Jokar, M., Jourdain, N. O. A. S., Hølleland, S. N., Bogstad, B., Subbey, S. (2025) A functional response model fit to empirical consumption data. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 36, 4, doi: 10.1007/s11160-025-10010-7
    • Richter, I., and coauthors (2025) The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP). Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 9, 2587-2608, doi: 10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025
    • Scheuerer, M., E. Byermoen, E., Ribeiro de Oliveira, J., Roksvåg, T., Schuler, D. V. (2025) Multi-decadal streamflow projections for catchments in Brazil based on CMIP6 multi-model simulations and neural network embeddings for linear regression models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 29, 5099-5119, doi: 10.5194/hess-29-5099-2025
    • Garcia-Oliva, L., Carrassi, A., and Counillon, F. (2025) Exploring the influence of spatio-temporal scale differences in coupled data assimilation. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 439–456, doi:10.5194/npg-32-439-2025.
    • Garfinkel, C. I., Lawrence, Z. D., Butler, A. H., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Erner, I., Karpechko, A. Y., Koren, G., Abalos, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Calvo, N., de la Cámara, A., Charlton-Perez, A., Cohen, J., Domeisen, D. I. V., García-Serrano, J., Hindley, N. P., Jucker, M., Kim, H., Lee, R. W., Lee, S. H., Osman, M., Palmeiro, F. M., Polichtchouk, I., Rao, J., Richter, J. H., Schwartz, C., Son, S.-W., Taguchi, M., Tyrrell, N. L., Wright, C. J., and Wu, R. W.-Y. (2025) A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems , Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 171–195, doi: 10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025.
    • Kim, Y., Lee, J., Chikamoto, Y., Timmermann, A., Lee, S., Kwon, E., Park, W., Hasan, N., Bethke, I., Fransner, F., Karwat, A., Subrahmanian, A., Franzke, C. (2025) Robust Estimates of Earth System Predictability of the 1st kind using the CESM2 Multiyear Prediction System (CESM2-MP). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., BAMS-D-24-0329.1, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0329.1.
    • Chapman, W. E., Schevenhoven, F., Berner, J., Keenlyside, N., Bethke, I., Chiu, P.-G., Gupta, A., and Nusbaumer, J. (2025) Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5 , Geoscientific Model Development, 18:5451–5465, doi: 10.5194/gmd-18-5451-2025.
    • Koseki, M., Sandø, A. B., Ottersen, G., Årthun, M., Stiansen, J. E. (2025) Exploration of short-term predictions and long-term projections of Barents Sea cod biomass using statistical methods on data from dynamical models. PLOS ONE 20(7): e0328762. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0328762
    • Gonzalez, S., Sandvik, A. D., Jensen, M. F., Albretsen, J., Sandø, A. B., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Hjøllo, S. S., Vikebø, F. (2025) Drivers of the summer 2024 marine heatwave and record salmon lice outbreak in northern Norway. Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 639, doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02618-1
    • Dunn-Sigouin, E., Kolstad, E. W., Wulff, O., Parker, D. J., Keane, R. J. (2025) Balancing Accuracy versus Precision: Enhancing the Usability of Sub-Seasonal Forecasts. Climate Services, 39, 100594, doi: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100594
    • Shi, Y. (2025) Assessing the dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme insurance claims: A bivariate peak over threshold method. Risk Analysis, doi: 10.1111/risa.70033
    • Silva, E., Counillon, F, Brajard, J., Davy, R. Outten, S., Pettersson, L. H., Keenlyside, N. (2025) Warming and freshening coastal waters impact harmful algal bloom frequency in high latitudes. Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 445, doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02421-y.
    • Fuentes, G., Munim, Z. H. (2025) Climate influence on Panama Canal operations: Predicting canal water times with integrated environmental and operational data. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 203, 104319, doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2025.104319
    • Keane, R. J., Parker, D. J., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Kolstad, E. W., Marsham, J. H. (2025) Mid-Latitude Versus Tropical Scales of Predictability and Their Implications for Forecasting. Meteorologial Applications, 32:e70055, doi: 10.1002/met.70055
    • Shi, Y., Punzo, A., Otneim, H., Maruotti, A. (2025) Hidden Semi-Markov Models for Rainfall-Related Insurance Claims. Insurance, Mathematics and Economics, 120:91-106, doi: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2024.11.008
    • Hølleland, S., Berentsen, G. D., Otneim, H. and Solbrekke, I. M. (2025) Optimal allocation of 30 GW offshore wind power in the Norwegian economic zone. Wind Energy Science, 10, 293-313, doi: 10.5194/wes-10-293-2025
    • Vatnehol, S., Hølleland, S.N., Salthaug, A., Høines, Å. S., Slotte, A., Stenevik, E. K. (2024) Exploring cohort-based density-dependent effects on maturity in Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus). ICES Journal of Marine Science, 81, 10, 2028-2036, doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsae144
    • Nair, A.S., Counillon, F., Keenlyside, N. (2024) Improving subseasonal forecast skill in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model using soil moisture data assimilation. Climate Dynamics 62:10483–10502, doi: 10.1007/s00382-024-07444-3
    • Sospedra-Alfonso, R., and Coauthors, (2024) Decadal prediction centers prepare for a major volcanic eruption. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 105, E2496–E2524, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0111.1.
    • Ono, K., Katara, I., Eliasen, S. K., Broms, C., Campbell, A., dos Santos Schmidt, T. C., Egan, A., Hølleland, S. N., Jacobsen, J. A., Jansen, T., Mackinson, S ., Mousing, E. A., Nash, R. D. M., Nikolioudakis, N., Nnanatu, C., Nøttestad, L., Singh, W., Slotte, A., Wieland, K., Olafsdottir, A. H. (2024) Effect of environmental drivers on the spatiotemporal distribution of mackerel at age in the Nordic Seas during 2010−20, ICES Journal of Marine Science, 81 (7): 1282–1294, doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsae087.
    • Fuentes, G., Wallace, S. W., & Ådland, R. O. (2024) The effects of waiting times on the bunkering decision for tramp ships. Maritime Transport Research, 6: 100106, doi: 10.1016/j.martra.2024.100106.
    • Solbrekke, I. M., Sorteberg, A. (2024) Norwegian offshore wind power—Spatial planning using multi-criteria decision analysis (2024) Wind Energy, 27(1): 5-32. doi:10.1002/we.2871
    • Boljka, L., Bethke, I., Tao, D., Li, C. (2024) Upstream influence of midlatitude jeg stream biases in boral summer. Atmospheric Science Letters, e1272, doi: 10.1002/asl.1272.
    • Bremer, S., Meisch, S., Hempel, M., Dunn-Sigouin, E. (2024) Adapting seasonal beekeeping patterns in western Norway. Time & Society. doi: 10.1177/0961463X241275003
    • Silva, E., Brajard, J., Counillon, F., Pettersson, L. H., Naustvoll, L. (2024) Probabilistic models for harmful algae: application to the Norwegian Coast. Environmental Data Science, 3, 2024, e12, doi:10.1017/eds.2024.11
    • Kolstad, E. W., O’Reilly, C. (2024) Causal oceanic feedbacks onto the winter NAO. Climate Dynamics, 62, 4223-4236, doi: 10.1007/s00382-024-07128-y
    • Ogilvie, A. E. J., King, L A., Keenlyside, N., Counillon F. et al.(2024) Recent ventures in interdisciplinary Arctic research: The ARCPATH Project. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,, 41,1559-1568, doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3333-x.
    • Garcia-Oliva, L., Counillon, F., Bethke, I., Keenlyside, N. (2024) Intercomparison of initialization methods for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions with the NorCPM. Climate Dynamics, 62: 5425-5444, doi: 10.1007/s00382-024-07170-w.
    • Iversen, E. K., Grimsrud, K., Lindhjem, H. Navrud, S. (2024) Mountains of trouble: Accounting for environmental cost of land use change from tourism development. Tourism Management. 102: 104870, doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2023.104870
    • Iversen, E. K., Dugstad, A. (2024) Spatial dimensions in stated preference valuation: The role of place attachment. Land Use Policy, 136: 106971, doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106971
    • Afargan-Gerstman, H., Büeler, D., Wulff, C. O. W., Sprenger, M., Domeisen, D. I.V. (2024) Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5, 231-249, doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024
    • Schevenhoven, F. J., Keenlyside, N. S., Counillon, F. S., Carrassi, A., Chapman, W. Devilliers, M., Gupta, A.K., Koseki, S., Selten, F., Shen, M.-L. Wang, S., Weiss, J. B., Wiegernick, W., Duane, G. (2023) Supermodeling: Improving predictions with and ensemble of interacting models. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society – (BAMS), 104, E1670-E1686, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0070.1
    • Polkova, I. et al. (2023) Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Frontiers in Climate, 5, doi: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770
    • Rivas Camargo, D. A.,  Counillon, F. S.,  Keenlyside, N. S. (2023) On dynamical downscaling of ENSO-induced oceanic anomalies off Baja California Peninsula, Mexico: role of the air-sea heat flux. Frontiers in Marine Science, 10, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1179649
    • Tedesco, P. S, Lenkoski, F. A., Bloomfield, H. C., Sillmann, J. (2023) Gaussian copula modeling of extreme cold and weak-wind events over Europe conditioned on winter weather regimes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, doi: 1748-9326/acb6aa
    • Paasche, Ø. (2023) Om betydningen av et nytt klimaregime. Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift, 40: 215-223, doi: 10.18261/nnt.40.2-3.12
    • King, M. P., Keenlyside, N. S. & Li, C. (2023) ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability. Climate Dynamics, 61: 2717–2733, doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06697-8
    • O’Kane, T. J. et al. (2023) Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions Frontiers in Climate, 5,  doi: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
    • Brajard, J. et al.  (2023) Enhancing seasonal forecast skills by optimally weighting the ensemble from fresh data Weather and Forecasting, 38: 1241-1252, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-22-0166.1
    • Silva, E. et al (2023) Forecasting harmful algae blooms: application to Dinophysis acuminata in northern Norway Harmful Algae, 126: 102442, doi: 10.1016/j.hal.2023.102442.
    • Counillon, F. et al (2023) Framework for an ocean-connected supermodel of the Earth System. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15, doi:10.1029/2022MS003310
    • Fransner et al. (2023) Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance Nature Communications Earth & Environment, 4: 114, doi: 10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9
    • Gao, S., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Bethke, I. et al. (2023) Riverine impact on future projections of marine primary production and carbon uptake. Biogeosciences, 20: 93-119, doi: 10.5194/bg-20-93-2023.
    • Barthélémy, S., Brajard, J., Bertino, L., & Counillon, F. (2022) Super-resolution data assimilation. Ocean Dynamics, 72: 661-678, doi: 10.1007/s10236-022-01523-x
    • Berentsen, G. D., Bulla, j., Maruotti, A, Støve, B. (2022) Modelling clusters of corporate defaults: Regime-switching models significantly reduce the contagion source. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 71: 698-722, doi: 10.1111/rssc.12551.
    • Domeisen, D. I. V., White, C. J., Afargan-Gerstman, H., et al. (2022) Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103: E1473-E1501, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
    • Hovdahl, I. (2022) The deadly effect of day-to-day temperature variation in the United States. Environ. Res. Lett. 17 104031. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac9297
    • Kolstad, E. W., Lee, S. H., Butler, A. H., Domeisen, D. I. V., & Wulff, C. O. (2022). Diverse surface signatures of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2022JD037422. doi: 10.1029/2022JD037422
    • Kolstad, E. W., & MacLeod, D. (2022) Lagged Oceanic Effects on the East African Short Rains. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6.
    • Lawrence, Z., Abalos, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D. E., et al. (2022) Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems. Weather and Climate Dynamics. doi: 10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022.
    • Meisch, S., M. Hempel, S. R. Bremer, E. Dunn-Sigouin (2022) Changing beekeeping seasons in Vestland, Norway. In Transforming food systems: ethics, innovation and responsibility. Editors: D. Bruce and A. Bruce,  p 69-75. doi: 10.3920/978-90-8686-939-8_9.
    • Roksvåg, T., Lenkoski, A., Scheuerer, M., Heinrich-Mertsching, C. & Thorarinsdottir, T.L. (2022) Probabilistic prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1–20. doi: 10.1002/qj.4403
    • Yuan, Q., Thorarinsdottir, T. L., Beldring, S., Wong, W. K., Xu, C.-Y. (2021) Bridging the scale gap: obtaining high-resolution stochastic simulations of gridded daily precipitation in a future climate. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25: 5259-5275, doi: 10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021.
    • Bethke, I., Wang, Y., Counillon, F. S., Keenlyside, N. S., Kimmritz, M., Fransner, F., Samuelsen, A., Langehaug, H. R., Svendsen, L., Chiu, P-G., Passos, L. G., Bentsen, M., Guo, C., Gupta, A. K., Tjiputra, J., Kirkevåg, A., Oliviè, D. J. L., Seland, Ø., Vågane, J. S., Fan, Y., Eldevik, T. (2021) NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP.  Geoscientific Model Development, 14: 7073-7116, doi: 10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021.
    • Silva., E., Counillon, F.,  Brajard, J., Korosov, A., Pettersson, L. H.,  Samuelsen, A., &  Keenlyside, N. (2021) Twenty-One Years of Phytoplankton Bloom Phenology in the Barents, Norwegian, and North Seas. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8: 746327, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2021.746327.
    • Kolstad, E. W., MacLeod, D., & Demissie, T. D. (2021) Drivers of subseasonal forecasting of the East African short rains. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL093292, doi: 10.1029/2021GL093292.

Not peer-reviewed

• • • Lenkoski, A., Kolstad, E. W. & Thorarinsdottir, T. L. (2022) Benchmarking Dataset for Seasonal Weather Forecasts. Norsk Regnesentral rapport SAMBA/01/22 (27.01.2022).