Forecast for November and December 2020

In the Seasonal Forecasting Engine research project, we combine historical data (ERA5) and trends with seasonal forecasts from multiple dynamical models into probabilistic forecasts. The dynamical model data is provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). The method that we use to combine these data sources will be published soon.

This is our temperature forecast for November, shown as deviation from the long-term climatology in standard deviation units:

Median temperature forecast for November 2020, based on ERA5 and forecasts from the seasonal forecast models from CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France and NCEP.

The ongoing La Niña is clearly visible as below-normal temperatures in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific. In most of Europe, above-average temperatures are expected.

When it comes to precipitation, the northern part of Europe is forecast to be slightly wetter-than-normal, but in other regions strongly drier-than-normal conditions are predicted:

Median precipitation forecast for November 2020, based on ERA5 and forecasts from the seasonal forecast models from CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France and NCEP.

Below, the December temperature forecast is shown:

Median temperature forecast for December 2020, based on ERA5 and forecasts from the seasonal forecast models from CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France and NCEP.

And finally, the combined December precipitation forecast:

Median precipitation forecast for December 2020, based on ERA5 and forecasts from the seasonal forecast models from CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France and NCEP.

Climate Futures centre will launch on October 1, 2020

In June, the Research Council of Norway announced the list of new Centres for Research-based Innovation. Climate Futures is one of them and will start in October. Our centre involves about 30 partners, and our goal is to enhance climate prediction skill and the uptake of climate risk management in the private and public sectors.

The Climate Futures alliance was built on the platform provided by the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and will be coordinated by NORCE.

May, June, July seasonal forecast for northern Europe

The research project Seasonal Forecasting Engine issued a new forecast today (in Norwegian). The figure below shows the predicted temperature anomaly, i.e. the deviation from the average during the last 20 years.

The predicted anomalies are quite small, meaning that the forecast models indicate that the period will be neither very warm nor very cold compared to normal.

Disclaimer: Our seasonal forecasts are experimental and subject to ongoing research. We accept no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from use of this forecast.

New EU project: CONFER

A scene from the Kibera neighbourhood in Nairobi, the largest urban slum in Africa. During intense rainfall periods, garbage flows into the area from surrounding areas, and much of this ends up in roadside ditches. Flood mitigation is one of the goals of CONFER. Photo by Erik Kolstad, taken in 2018.

In September, a new EU-funded Horizon 2020 project will start. CONFER will be led by Erik Kolstad at NORCE and is a multi-national collaboration to bolster resilience to climate impacts and reduce disaster risk in East Africa, potentially reaching 365 million people in 11 countries. The project has eight other partners from Kenya, South Africa, Norway, UK, and Germany.

The main objective of CONFER is to co-develop dedicated climate services for the water, energy and food security sectors with stakeholders and end-users, to enhance their ability to plan for and adapt to seasonal climate fluctuations.

The scientific work in CONFER is ambitious and aims to break new ground along three inter-related tracks. First, we will secure end-user engagement by using the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Fora, which are organized by CONFER partner ICPAC three times per year and attract about 200 stakeholders, as platforms for co-production of new and dedicated climate services for our focus sectors. By fostering a two-way dialogue between our scientists and a large group of stakeholders and end-users, we will create enthusiasm and raise awareness to ensure that the value of our new science and products is fully realized by those who need them the most.

Second, we will improve on the accuracy and local detail of numerical prediction model outputs for East Africa, with a particular focus on seasonal prediction.

Third, we will develop statistical and machine learning tools to obtain a new level of seasonal forecast skill based on numerical models and high- resolution satellite data.

We will also involve our scientific experts in a large training and capacity development programme designed to enhance climate information uptake in our focus sectors. Our research and outreach address important IPCC topics, the sustainable development goals, and the expected impacts in the call for proposals. We will aim to influence policymaking through frequent interaction with stakeholders at the climate outlook fora, by publishing policy briefs, and by organizing an open conference on climate services in Africa in 2023.

Seminar om klimarisiko

OPPDATERING: Seminaret er utsatt grunnet koronakrisen.

Vil noen av de verste konsekvensene av naturkatastrofer kunne unngås? Kan viktige næringer tilpasse seg ekstremvær lang tid i forveien? Vil kraftprisene svinge mindre? Hva med forsikringene våre? Blir vi rett og slett bedre forberedt og hvilke konsekvenser har det?

Mandag 30. mars 2020 arrangerer NORCE, Bjerknessenteret og NHH et lunsjseminar om klimarisiko. Det blir kun anledning til å delta med gyldig billett. Gratis påmelding via Eventbrite.

Varslingsmodellene ga tydelige signaler om tørken sommeren 2018. Om dette var et offisielt varsel som ble gitt og tatt hensyn til allerede i juni eller tidligere, hvordan kunne det vært utnyttet? Sammen med eksperter på feltet forsøker vi å gi noen svar på hvordan lange varsler kan gjøre verden smartere og tryggere. 

Et viktig punkt er hvordan klimavarsler tas inn i risikovurdering. Dette gjøres i liten grad i dag, ifølge Regjeringens klimarisikoutvalg. Derfor har NORCE og Bjerknessenteret opprettet initiativet Climate Futures, sammen med NHH og fremoverlente aktører i næringslivet.

Dette har blant annet ført til en søknad om midler til et nytt Senter for forskningsdrevet innovasjon (SFI). Til dette seminaret kommer representanter for sektorer der varsling av klimarisiko forventes å ha stor betydning. Seminaret vil gi innblikk i hvordan disse blir påvirket av værforhold, og hva enkelte aktører tenker rundt mulighetene dersom de visste været «i stort» for de kommende månedene.

Her er det åpenbare samfunnsgevinster, men denne typen varsler vil også kunne legge føringer på hvordan næringer innretter seg og drives. Trusler kan reduseres, og vi kan øke konkurranseevnen basert på fremtidskunnskap om vær, vann og vind.

Seminaret arrangeres som en del av prosjektet Seasonal Forecasting Engine, som er finansiert av Norges Forskningsråd.

Program

10:00 – Velkommen ved Øyvind Paasche, Bjerknessenteret og NORCE

10:05 – Hva menes med klimarisiko? Linda Nøstbakken, Prorektor NHH, medlem av klimarisikoutvalget

10:20 – Lange værvarsler: Erik Kolstad, NORCE og Bjerknessenteret

10:35 – Norges forhold til klimarisiko: Klima- og miljøminister Sveinung Rotevatn

10:50 – Klimarisiko innen energi-kraftproduksjon: Jannicke Hilland, adm.dir. BKK

11:00 – Klimarisiko innen bank/finans: Ragnhild Janbu Fresvik, konserndirektør Sparebanken Vest

11:10 – Havvind: en demper av klimarisiko? Beate Myking, direktør for fornybare løsninger, Equinor

11:20 – Klimarisiko innen forsikring: Espen Opedal, adm.dir. Tryg Norge

11:30 – Klimarisiko innen shipping: Erlend M. Knudsen, Global Sustainability Manager, StormGeo

11:40 – Åpen diskusjon med panel bestående av innledere

12.00 – Påskevarsel, lunsj og sosialt

Påmelding

Workshop: How climate change is shaping Africa

Children in the Kibera slum in Nairobi, Kenya, which is prone to flooding. Photo by Erik Kolstad

UPDATE: The seminar is postponed due to the Corona crisis.

The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research at the University of Bergen and Christian Michelsen Institute (CMI) are organizing a one-day, invitation-only workshop entitled How climate change is shaping Africa. The workshop will take place at Litteraturhuset in Bergen from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on 21 April 2020, ending with a workshop dinner. Norway’s minister of international development, Dag Inge Ulstein, has agreed to open the workshop, and Henrik Urdal – the director of PRIO – will give one of the keynote presentations.

The goal of the workshop is to identify new opportunities for cross-disciplinary research on climate change and African development in Norway. Structurally, the workshop will consist of two parts: 1) Invited keynote presentations covering policy, scientific challenges, and knowledge gaps and needs; and 2) Group work to discuss concrete opportunities for research proposals (identify relevant calls, construct proposal outlines). We also aim to write a policy brief or perspective article based on the discussions.

If you would like to participate (or if you know someone who might), please get in contact with Erik Kolstad at the Bjerknes Centre and/or Aslak Orre at CMI as soon as possible.

Programme (subject to change):

  • 10.00: Opening keynote by Dag Inge Ulstein
  • 10.15: Keynote presentation by Henrik Urdal
  • 10.45: Two more keynote presentations
  • 11.45: Break
  • 12.00: Plenary discussion
  • 12.30: Lunch
  • 13.30: 6 x 10+5 minute presentations
  • 15.00: Break
  • 15.15: Group work
  • 16.45: Break
  • 17.00: Plenary discussion
  • 18.00: Dinner at Colonialen